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Information Update #61 (March 2003)
North Korea's Nuclear "Bombshell" & A Non-Governmental Response

 

Editor's Note: Information Update (IU) #61 is being issued as the United States leads a preemptive military attack on Iraq. North Korea, one of the members of the so-called "axis of evil," cannot help but wonder if it too will soon find itself in the cross-hairs of the Bush Administration's National Security Strategy. At the beginning of March, the Baltimore Sun quoted President Bush as saying: "If they [North Koreans] don't work diplomatically, they'll have to work militarily." This IU presents background on an issue that we expect will be front and center in the months to come.


On October 16, 2002, the United States announced that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK - North Korea) admitted it has undertaken a nuclear weapons development program. If the DPRK has embarked on this activity, it would appear to be in violation of four international agreements -- Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); 1992 Joint North-South Declaration on the De-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula; 1992 Safeguards Agreement Between the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea; and, the 1994 US-North Korea Agreed Framework. Subsequently, on January 10, 2003, the DPRK declared its withdrawal from the NPT saying, "Though we pull out of the NPT, we have no intention of producing nuclear weapons and our nuclear activities at this stage will be confined only to peaceful purposes." North Korea's declaration to withdraw from the NPT has changed the political landscape of Northeast Asia, retarding North Korea's recent tentative efforts to find its place in world affairs as represented by the September 2002 breakthrough summit between the leaders of Japan and North Korea. Initial international response to North Korea's revelation in October was measured, calling on North Korea to abandon its program and conclude a diplomatic resolution of the issue. For its part, North Korea claimed willingness to address US security concerns about its nuclear weapons program through dialogue, proposing three conditions for peaceful settlement: 1) US recognition of North Korea's sovereignty; 2) US assurance of non-aggression towards North Korea; and, 3) a halt to US interference and hindrance in North Korea's economic development. The US turned down the proposal, insisting that North Korea scrap its nuclear program in an "immediate and verifiable" way. Among possible explanations for what some call North Korea's new "confessional diplomacy" is its concern over the glacial pace of negotiations with the Bush administration to normalize their relations in the context of the 1994 Agreed Framework. In that agreement, North Korea committed to freeze and eventually dismantle some of its facilities that are alleged to be for a nuclear arms program in exchange for fuel oil and proliferation-resistant nuclear reactors from among others, the US, Japan, and South Korea. For some time, the DPRK had been complaining about the protracted time that it was taking for the US to fulfill its obligations under the Agreed Framework. For example, the nuclear reactors to be built by US-led KEDO (Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization), which were to be completed in 2002, were not expected to be ready for several years past the target date. In addition, Pyongyang was concerned about delays in the delivery of heavy oil and that the United States had not fully lifted economic sanctions. The difficulties in implementing the Agreed Framework have been compounded by the Bush Administration's harsh "axis of evil" rhetoric and doctrine of preemption. This new doctrine entails the right to use military force against "rogue" regimes seeking weapons of mass destruction before those regimes can attack the United States. Inevitably, Pyongyang interprets this as a US threat of nuclear "first-use" on the Korean Peninsula. Among other possible explanations for North Korea's actions and admission is that, "...Pyongyang concluded that securing nuclear weapons was necessary not only to ensure its survival, but also as indispensable leverage in dealing with outside powers, especially the United States." (note:1) Alexandre Y. Mansourov suggests that, "In one big swing, Kim Jong-Il raised dramatically the stakes of nuclear bargaining with the United States...Kim Jong-Il chose to reveal one of his winning cards, previously tightly held, not only to deter the main adversary, but also to entice the latter into meaningful and credible negotiations over the entire spectrum of bilateral relations." (note:2) By early November, tensions over the issue had intensified. North Korea proclaimed: "Reckless political, economic and military pressure from the Bush Administration is seriously threatening our right to subsistence creating a grave situation on the Korean peninsula. We told the special envoy of the US president that we are entitled to possess not only nuclear weapons but any type of weapon more powerful than that in order to protect our sovereignty and right to subsistence from an ever growing US nuclear threat." (note:3)

~Agreed Framework~
"The problem with nullifying the Agreed Framework -- even if it is fully justified, indeed called for -- is that the issue that precipitated the need for the agreement, that of stopping North Korea from producing nuclear bombs -- remains unresolved. In fact, scrapping the Agreed Framework will allow North Korea to resume its nuclear activity with a degree of legality and legitimacy." [Professor Han Sung Joo, President of Korea University, 10/30/02]

The Agreed Framework "is useful in realizing a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula...China hopes the relevant parties can carry out their obligations." [Kong Quan, PRC Foreign Ministry, AP 11/21/02]


As discord heightened, the perennially sensitive subject of joint Japan-US missile defense was added to the mix with US Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith warning that Japan faces the "danger" of a DPRK missile attack. Although claiming not to be pressuring Japan to build a missile shield, the US has intensified its efforts to build a multilayered Missile Defense (MD) which integrates previous Theater Missile Defense (TMD) and National Missile Defense (NMD), with an aim to eventually integrating its Asian allies into the program. Although he denies making such comments, Japan's Defense Agency Chief Shigeru Ishiba expressed hopes that Japan will soon move from the research to the development phase of the bilateral missile defense initiative with the US. His sentiments were echoed by a senior aide to Prime Minister Koizumi, Deputy Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, who said that to counter the threat of an "unpredictable" DPRK, it was only natural for Japan to consider a missile defense system as it currently had no means to protect itself from a missile attack. Abe's notion does not reflect the reality of the region. A more accurate description of the situation is that, in fact, North Korea and China have long been exposed to an overwhelming threat of offensive theatre missiles. North Korea has responded to any US-Japan efforts to develop MD by threatening to end its three-year- old missile test moratorium. Such a move would undermine the important pledge Kim Jong-Il made to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at their historic summit in September 2002 to extend the moratorium, originally set to end in 2003. Some analysts suggest that the Bush Administration may not, in fact, be interested in removing North Korea from the threat list. Perception of such a threat may provide a good justification for building a MD system, the real goal of which includes countering any threat from China, the one country developing sufficient economic and military status to challenge the United States.


Missile Defense (MD): Obstacle to Peace in NE Asia*
Excerpts from:
A Maginot Line in the Sky: International Perspectives on Ballistic Missile Defense

Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, 2001

[*Since the publication of the following, the terms TMD (Theater Missile Defense) and NMD (National Missile Defense) have been subsumed under the more comprehensive MD, which refers to a multilayered Missile Defense.]

"The notion that NTWD (Navy Theater Wide Defense) is purely defensive is also related to a lack of regional perspective. The fair description of the situation is that it is North Korea and China that have long been exposed to an overwhelming threat of offensive theater (intermediate range) missiles posed by the US-Japan military alliance. In Yokosuka, Japan, as many as 500 vertical launchers of Tomahawk cruise missiles are aboard six US naval warships homeported at the Yokosuka US Naval Base. It is assumed that about half of those launchers are fitted with cruise missiles, ready to fly with pinpoint accuracy. Adding the TMD system to such a situation could never be viewed as a defensive step. It appears to be an action for ultimate offensive dominance. [Hiro Umebayashi, "Theater Missile Defense: A Confidence Destructive Measure in East Asia"]

"...the American vision of NMD and TMD in this region will tend to give the general public an illusion that the nuclear threat to humanity can be effectively nullified without eliminating the nuclear weapons themselves. This promotion of a false sense of security, which may be catering to the latent popular greed for self-centered security systems, will act against the possibility of building a genuine nuclear free zone in Northeast Asia. The missile defenses will not function - as some politicians might expect in the US and Japan - as reasons not to worry about the nuclear weapons of China and Russia. They will function as reason not to care about the necessity of building a system of common security with the other powers, involving an effort to create nuclear weapon free zones around the world. Building a nuclear weapon free zone requires a political environment favorable to explore a common security system among potentially hostile nations in the region. TMD and NMD will destroy any semblance of that kind of political trust among nations...A real process of building a nuclear weapon free zone in East Asia requires the commitment of American allies in East Asia to liberating themselves from dependence on US military power and the technology of missile defense which will remain permanently imperfect...The idea of a NWFZ should be presented as the real alternative to building dangerous and imperfect missile defense system." [Samsung Lee, "Missile Defenses and the Korean Peninsula" ]

Citizen Groups to Send Delegation to North Korea
to Propose a Non-Nuclear Treaty

In the midst of the DPRK nuclear situation, non- governmental groups remain acutely aware that if a permanent peace is to be forged on the Korean Peninsula and region is to be secure, this challenge cannot be left to governments alone. In mid-January, an advance team of four people from the Peace Boat (Japan) visited North Korea. One of its missions was to make arrangements for a preparatory meeting between the Anti-Nuke and Peace Committee of North Korea [KANPC] and a Japanese Delegation including Hiromichi Umebayashi (President of the Peace Depot and PCDS International Coordinator) and Tetsuo Maeda (military affairs journalist) to discuss future cooperation for a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone. A recent communication from KANPC has indicated that although it is "not able to receive the proposed preparatory delegation for the building of an international forum for a nuclear weapons free zone in North-East Asia because of the current severe situation on the Korean peninsula and the rather busy schedules," they "look forward to a future closer contact and positive cooperation...in building the world without nuclear weapons."

The Peace Depot and Peace Boat are well-prepared for this eventual mission. In particular, the Peace Depot has been granted funds from the Toyota Foundation to study "Northeast Asia Regional Security Frameworks" and is currently working on a draft Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty along with educational activities to promote the idea among the general public. For its part, the Peace Boat has organized five cruises to North Korea since the 1990s for citizen exchanges with two thousand citizens having already participated. The groups also request that both the Japanese and North Korean governments place the subject of a NWFZ on the negotiating table for future talks between the two countries, while at the same time the groups call on the United States to abandon its own nuclear programs and its hostile policy toward North Korea. The groups have issued a joint declaration outlining their position as follows:

NGO Joint Declaration
November 7, 2002
Bringing a 'Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone' to the Negotiating Table
In the Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration of September 17, 2002 the leaders of both countries agreed, in respect of the issues of nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and regional security, to 'comply with all related international agreements' and to 'resolve security problems by promoting dialogues.' That both Japan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (hereafter North Korea) reaffirmed their common understanding was a tremendous outcome of the summit talks. However, on October 16 2002, the U.S. State Department announced that North Korea has admitted to a programme of nuclear weapons development. As NGOs dealing with peace and security of Northeast Asia, we demand the following:

1. That North Korea make public all information regarding its programme of nuclear weapons development. If North Korea's nuclear weapons development programme is a fact, then this clearly goes against major international agreements such as the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the 1994 US-North Korea Agreed Framework, and the 1992 Joint Declaration on the De-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. We strongly protest this act as wrecking the security base of the Northeast Asia region. In order to establish the truth of the matter and at what stage the programme stands, a thorough investigation must be made. First and foremost we demand that the North Korean government make public all information related to the programme immediately.

2. That the U.S. should revoke its hostile policy against North Korea. At the same time, we must draw attention to the numerous infringements of international agreements committed by the U.S. The most important point to consider is that President Bush has unilaterally trampled upon the agreement reached in October 2000 that 'neither government would have hostile intent toward the other' and that 'both governments [are committed] to make every effort in the future to build a new relationship free from past enmity.' Through the 'axis of evil' statement, the Nuclear Posture Review and its National Security Strategy, the U.S. has indicated that it would use nuclear weapons or make a pre-emptive strike against North Korea. The Bush Administration's request for an immediate inspection goes against the U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework. We demand that the U.S. return to its Agreed Framework and revoke its hostile policy toward North Korea. Also, there is no doubt to us that the U.S. itself is obliged to eliminate its nuclear arsenal under the NPT.

3. That both the Japanese and the North Korean governments bring the concept of a 'Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone' to the negotiating table. The issue at hand cannot be resolved by the U.S. style of belligerent diplomacy. We entreat the Japanese and North Korean governments to engage in a faithful and trustworthy dialogue from the standpoint of establishing peace and security. We strongly believe that the very solution to this issue is to be found in the argument for the de-nuclearization of the entire Northeast Asia region. The establishment of a 'Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone' should be brought up in the normalization talks between the two governments. The establishment of such a zone is one concrete way to implement the ideas agreed upon in the Pyongyang Declaration, and is the first step towards a common security in the region built upon mutual trust.

As a country which suffered the terrible experience of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the victims of which continue to suffer to this day both in Japan and on the Korean Peninsula, we call upon the Japanese government to take the initiative towards a Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. To this date, we have jointly organized with South Korean NGOs the 'Conference for Peace and Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Northeast Asia', as well as engaged in continuing dialogue with the North Korean 'Korean Anti-Nuke and Peace Committee'. We wish to take this opportunity to develop a powerful movement and will continue to tackle this issue in conjunction with South Korean NGOs and related North Korean organizations. Umebayashi Hiromichi, Executive Director, Peace Depot (NPO)
Maeda Tetsuo, Military Affairs Journalist
Kushibuchi Mari, Executive Committee, Peace Boat (NGO)
November 7, 2002

Recent Developments

(December 12, 2002 - March 19, 2003)

12/12

    DPRK announces that because of US-led decision to suspend oil shipments, it will restart its 5MW reactor at Yongbyon and resume construction of larger reactors frozen under 1994 Agreed Framework; DPRK writes IAEA to take steps to remove seals and monitoring devices from DPRK nuclear facilities at "earliest possible date"
12/19
    Roh Moo-Hyun wins ROK presidential election; former human rights lawyer claims he is not anti-US, but will not "kowtow" to US; supports continuing President Kim Dae-Jung's "Sunshine Policy" with DPRK
12/21
    DPRK removes seals, and covers up monitoring camera at the 5MW reactor at Yongbyon
12/22
    DPRK removes seals of the storage containers of 8000 used fuel rods
12/24
    DPRK removes seals of four facilities, including the reprocessing facility and fuel manufacturing facility
12/27
    DPRK sends letter to IAEA informing them of its decision to expel IAEA inspectors from the country
12/28
    DPRK tells 2 IAEA inspectors to leave country
12/30
    IAEA announces that DPRK informed the IAEA on 12/27 that it would begin re-operation of reprocessing plant in 1-2 months
12/31
    IAEA inspectors leave DPRK
1/06
    Although it decides against reporting DPRK's actions to UN Security Council, IAEA adopts "zero tolerance" approach to DPRK's nuclear program, asking it to admit inspectors and abandon nuclear weapon program; gave no deadline, but if no compliance by DPRK, will turn issue over to UN Security Council.
1/07
    Meeting of the Japan-ROK-US Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group. Joint Statement says that DPRK's relations with the entire international community depend on its taking "prompt and verifiable action" to dismantle its nuclear weapons. US offers talks with DPRK, but says talks would not be a negotiation -- "US will not provide quid pro quos to North Korea to live up to its existing obligations." Later, President Bush reiterates no intention of invading DPRK & that US would agree to direct talks with DPRK on how it can meet its obligations, but other US officials said they would have to be preceded by DPRK's disavowal of nuclear weapons ambitions
1/10
    DPRK announces immediate withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but said it may reverse its decision if the US agrees to resume oil supplies; pledges no intention of producing nuclear weapons and says it could allow US to "verify" that it had not produced weapons if US drops its "hostile policy"
1/13
    DPRK threatens to abandon moratorium on ballistic missile tests saying, "Because all agreements have been nullified by the United States side, we believe we cannot go along with a self-imposed missile moratorium any longer."
1/14
    President Bush offers to consider agricultural and fuel aid if North Korean dismantles its nuclear weapons program
1/15
    DPRK foreign ministry statement rejects Bush's offer as "pie in the sky" and "nothing but a deceptive drama to mislead world public opinion." Reiterates it is ready to resolve the nuclear issue through bilateral negotiations "on the condition that the US recognzie the DPRK's sovereignty, assures it of non-aggression and does not obstruct its economic development."
1/17
    ROK President-elect encourages the US to negotiate directly with DPRK
1/20
    RF Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov begins talks with DPRK proposing a 3-part "package plan" including 1) nuclear-free status for the Korean Peninsula, 2) security guarantee, 3) humanitarian & economic aid; US Under Secretary of State John Bolton says US wants to bring the DPRK nuclear issue before the UN Security Council and that the US could provide some sort of guarantee it wouldn't attack the DPRK -- "certainly we can find ways to record that fact."
1/21
    3-day DPRK-ROK joint cabinet-level meeting -- highest level of inter-Korean dialogue since nuclear crisis began in October 2002. Although joint statement says, "North and South Korea have exchanged enough of each others' positions on the nuclear issue and agreed to actively cooperate to settle this problem in a peaceful way," South Korea failed to convince DPRK to issue a public statement committing to quickly abandon its nuclear program.
1/24
    ROK President-elect announces plans to propose a summit with Kim Jong-Il soon after being sworn into office on February 25.
1/24
    Reported that USS Kitty Hawk left US Navy base at Yokosuka (Japan) to monitor Korean Peninsula, though Navy would not confirm reason for its deployment stating only that it was ready for "any mission." [In February, the Kitty Hawk is redeployed to the Persian Gulf.]
1/24
    Japan's Defense Minister, Shigeru Ishiba says Japan would be entitled to strike a DPRK missile base to prevent an attack. Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi cited remarks made in 1959 by Defense Agency Chief Shigejiro Ino that striking missile bases would be within the legal framework of self-defense. Both ministers were later criticized by DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada for their remarks which identified a specific country, saying that they would only serve to heighten tensions with DPRK at a sensitive time and amid ongoing talks over its nuclear programs.
1/28
    DPRK accuses US of planning a massive attack on the DPRK - "The situation on the Korean Peninsula is deteriorating so rapidly that an armed clash may break out quite contrary to the desire of the DPRK for a peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue."
1/30
    DPRK describes Bush "State of the Union" address as an "undisguised declaration of aggression to topple our system."
2/3
    US Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld places 24 long-range bombers (12 B-52s and 12 B-1s) on alert for possible deployment to Guam so as to be in easy range of North Korea to "deter opportunism." Presidential spokesperson, Ari Fleischer, says US is "making certain our contingencies are viable." On 2/6 Deputy Secretary of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz, said the deployment is simply reinforcing "US deterrent posture to make sure that North Korea doesn't do anything adventurous or dangerous of a military kind."
2/4
    Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage says, "Of course we are going to have direct talks with the North Koreans, there's no question about it." Concedes that the US had been "slow off the mark" in dealing with the issue because of the change of government in ROK. Reiterates US desire to see the issue solved multilaterally rather than just a problem between the US and North Korea. Armitage also rules out US acceptance of DPRK's demand for negotiations leading to a non-aggression treaty, noting that such a treaty requires Senate ratification of 2/3s majority, of which he says there is "zero chance."
2/5
    DPRK announces that it has restarted or is poised to restart* its nuclear facilities and is going ahead with their operation on a "normal footing" to generate electricity "at the present stage." It says, "The DPRK has already solemnly declared that its nuclear activity would be limited to peaceful purposes. [*Various interpretations of the DPRK's "process to restart" has led to lack of clarity whether the DPRK has actually restarted the reactor or is the in the process of restarting the reactor at this date.]
2/6
    DPRK warns that US pre-emptive attack on its nuclear facilities would provoke "total war;" US retorts, criticizing DPRK for talking about war over its nuclear capabilities and warns that the US has "robust plans for any contingencies"
2/10
    US Ambassador to Japan Howard Baker warns of possible DPRK missile tests over Japan, but provides no specifics
2/12
    IAEA governing board finds DPRK in breach of international nuclear weapons agreements & sends issue to the UN Security Council; should this lead to sanctions, DPRK says it would consider it a "declaration of war"
2/12
    CIA Director George Tenet claims DPRK has an untested ballistic missile capable of hitting the US West Coast
2/13
    Japan issues warning that it will launch a pre-emptive strike against the DPRK if it obtains firm evidence that the North is planning a missile attack on Japan. Japan's Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan could regard the process of injecting fuel into a missile as the start of a military attack if it determined that a missile was pointed at Japan; also said Japan should pursue missile defense
2/13
    ROK President-elect says he would not go along with the US in a military attack against DPRK to halt its nuclear program
2/13
    US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld expresses support for shifting US forces in ROK away from the DMZ & Seoul, and possible reduction of 37,000 US troops on Peninsula
2/17
    Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports that the US and Japan will begin testing a ship-based missile-defense system in 2004 using a missile-testing range in Hawaii
2/18
    Though the US claims it has no immediate plans to push for sanctions against DPRK, the New York Times reports that US State Department and Pentagon are developing detailed plans for such sanctions
2/18
    Reported that US & ROK will conduct wargames: Exercise Reception, Staging Onward Movement & Integration (ROSI) 3/19-26 and Foal Eagle, the largest joint US-ROK field training exercise 3/4 - 4/2, 2003; DPRK invited to observe
2/18
    ROK President Kim Dae Jung says that he has concluded that the danger of war on the Korean Peninsula is "slight -- in fact, non-existent," and repeats his call for prompt US-North Korean talks, saying they are "the only way to solve this problem."
2/18
    DPRK threatens to abandon its commitment to the 1953 Armistice Agreement that ended the Korean War should the US impose sanctions
2/19
    ROK President-elect Roh Moo-Hyun states that he is in opposition to the United States consideration of a military attack on North Korea. "There are many people who advise me to never display any opinions in opposition to the United States, but I am planning to say otherwise if it is for the peace of the Korean Peninsula..."
2/19
    Reported that US Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to travel to Japan, China and South Korea for talks on North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons program
2/20
    DPRK fighter jet briefly crosses western sea border with ROK; ROK places an anti-aircraft missile unit on battle alert & scrambles fighter jets to intercept; first DPRK military jet incursion since 1983
2/24
    Outgoing ROK President Kim Dae-Jung urges US to hold one-on-one talks with DPRK; Australia concurs that direct talks are only realistic option; US extends tours of duty for 2800 soldiers in Korea; DPRK fires short-range anti-ship cruise missile into Sea of Japan -- missile test does not violate the Pyongyang Agreement, and Japan Defense Agency says it "does not pose a threat to Japan's security;" PRC rejects Powell's appeal for regional approach to DPRK, calling for direct talks; DPRK successfully blocks 115 other countries of the Non-Aligned Movement from urging DPRK to return to NPT
2/25
    US announces food aid to DPRK in response to World Food Program Agency appeal for 2003; Roh Moo-Hyun inaugurated as ROK president
2/26
    US claims that DPRK restarts nuclear reactor frozen in 1994 that could produce plutonium, but does not appear to have restarted a plant capable of reprocessing spent fuel rods
2/27
    IAEA states opposition to DPRK operating a nuclear reactor without the presence of UN safeguard inspectors; FOAL EAGLE officially announced to take place 3/4 - 4/2 - large scale annual joint military exercise designed to improve ROK's defensive capabilities against "external aggression"
2/28
    NY Times reports that Pentagon is making contingency plans for possible military strike against nuclear sites in DPRK
3/2
    DPRK fighter jets intercept US reconnaissance plane over Sea of Japan following DPRK complaints that reconnaissance planes had intruded in its airspace over the previous week; first such incident since 1969
3/4
    US deploys 24 B1 & B52 bombers to Guam as "deterrent" to DPRK
3/6
    US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld indicates he wants US troops stationed on the DMZ to be pulled back, shifted south of the border, moved to other countries in the region, or brought home; Senator Richard Lugar (Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) calls for US to resume bilateral dialogue with DPRK in order to manage "the potential for miscalculation that could lead to a deadly incident or border conflict."
3/7
    ROK's defense minister urges US to leave its troops in place until current crisis is over
3/10
    DPRK test fires cruise missile into Sea of Japan
3/13
    Asst. Sec of State James Kelly says US-DPRK negotiations will not take place until DPRK agrees to eliminate nuclear weapons programs, protect human rights, address US concerns about terrorism, cease the export of missiles, & reduce conventional forces that target ROK; 6 US stealth fighters arrive at Kunsan Air Base (ROK), reportedly to participate in Foal Eagle; the planes have not participated in the exercise for 10 years suggesting that they may be meant to send a message to the DPRK
3/14
    Aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson Battle Group arrives in Pusan, ROK, in conjunction with commencement of Foal Eagle wargame; while the carrier has historically participated in Foal Eagle, this will be the first time in 4 years it has made a port visit to the ROK
3/19

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda says Japan may abandon the bilateral Pyongyang Declaration if Pyongyang continues its missile tests and nuclear program, saying that DPRK's recent tests breached the "spirit" of the agreement

     

Jumping Hoops

...the Bush administration's new nuclear doctrine, unveiled at the end of 2001, explicitly lists North Korea as one of seven countries that might warrant nuclear attack. As [Undersecretary of State] Bolton pointed out..., 'Change in the North's diplomatic, economic, and security posture is necessary but not sufficient.' In the Bush administration's lexicon, 'sufficient' for a member of the 'axis of evil' boils down to a single option: self destruction. Since regime change is not popular with the Japanese or the South Koreans, both of whom are still operating within an engagement containment continuum, the Bush administration has contented itself with multiplying the number of hoops that Pyongyang must jump through in order to emerge on the world stage." [John Feffer, "Responding to North Korea's Surprises, Foreign Policy in Focus, 10/24/02]

North Korea - "Hermit" Kingdom?

Among impediments to peace on the Korean Peninsula are the oft-repeated stereotypes that relegate North Korea to the status of a reclusive, "hermit" kingdom. Although North Korea has a fair distance to go to normalize its status in world affairs, it is useful to note some of its recent efforts to this end.
  • June 2000 -- Summit between North and South Korean leaders in Pyongyang July 2000 -- North Korea joins ASEAN Regional Forum -- Asia-Pacific's sole high-level security body (with 23 participants including US, Japan, ROK, China & Russia) By May 2001, North Korea had established formal ambassador-level relations with 156 countries, [38 in Asia, 52 in Africa, 11 in the Pacific, 1 in North America (Canada) and 37 in Europe] September 2001 -- following 9/11, North Korea signs two UN anti-terrorist conventions August 2002 -- North Korea sends its first ever boatload of athletes, musicians and cheerleaders to South Korea to participate in the Asian Games September 2002 -- Kim Jong-Il and Junichiro Koizumi conduct the first summit meeting between their two countries; North and South Korea establish a direct "hotline" October, 2002 -- North Korea sends representatives to a major multilateral security forum -- the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue -- for first time; by early October 2002, trade with South Korea up 11% over 2001 levels December 2002 -- Meeting of Inter-Korean working group for construction of the Kaesong Industrial Zone; North and South Korea complete removal of mines in their areas of the Demilitarized Zone in preparation for reconnecting rail lines between the two states. January 2003 -- North & South Korea agree to construct a reunion centre for separated families, with construction to begin in April 2003 February 2003 -- first road opens between the DPRK and ROK -- first of 4 routes expected to bring more than 300,000 visitors annually to the tourist enclave around Mt. Kumgang on the southeastern coast of North Korea. President Kim Dae Jung commented: "This is the first time in half a century that we went to North Korea through the demilitarized zone;" Twenty-nine athletes sent to the Asian Winter Games in Japan (involving 28 countries); ROK-DPRK Economic Cooperation talks take place Continuing engagement between North & South on major inter-Korea projects including work towards reconnection of inter-Korea railroad links (expected in March) and Mount Kumgang overland tourism initiative
  • 69 flights between North & South Korea in 2002, a five-fold increase over 2001.

Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration

Provisional Translation
by Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Chairman Kim Jong-Il of the DPRK National Defense Commission met and had talks in Pyongyang on September 17, 2002. Both leaders confirmed the shared recognition that establishing a fruitful political, economic and cultural relationship between Japan and the DPRK through the settlement of the unfortunate past between them and the outstanding issues of concern would be consistent with the fundamental interests of both sides, and would greatly contribute to the peace and stability of the region. 1. Both sides determined that, pursuant to the spirit and basic principles laid out in this Declaration, they would make every possible effort for an early normalization of the relations, and decided that they would resume the Japan DPRK normalization talks in October 2002. Both sides expressed their strong determination that they would sincerely tackle outstanding problems between Japan and the DPRK based upon their mutual trust in the course of achieving the normalization. 2. The Japanese side regards, in a spirit of humility, the facts of history that Japan caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of Korea through its colonial rule in the past, and expressed deep remorse and heartfelt apology. Both sides shared the recognition that, providing economic co-operation after the normalization by the Japanese side to the DPRK side, including grant aids, long-term loans with low interest rates and such assistance as humanitarian aid through international organizations, over a period of time deemed appropriate by both sides, and providing other loans and credits by such financial institutions as the Japan Bank for International Co-operation with a view to supporting private economic activities, would be consistent with the spirit of this Declaration, and decided that they would sincerely discuss the specific levels and nature of such economic co-operation in the normalization talks. Both sides, pursuant to the basic principle that when the bilateral relationship is normalized both Japan and the DPRK would mutually waive all their property and claims and those of their nationals that had arisen from causes which occurred before August 15, 1945, decided that they would discuss this issue of property and claims concretely in the normalization talks. Both sides decided that they would sincerely discuss the issue of the status of Korean residents in Japan and the issue of cultural property. 3. Both sides confirmed that they would comply with international law and would not commit conducts threatening the security of the other side. With respect to the outstanding issues of concern related to the lives and security of Japanese nationals, the DPRK side confirmed that it would take appropriate measures so that these regrettable incidents, that took place under the abnormal bilateral relationship, would never happen in the future. 4. Both sides confirmed that they would co-operate with each other in order to maintain and strengthen the peace and stability of North East Asia. Both sides confirmed the importance of establishing co-operative relationships based upon mutual trust among countries concerned in this region, and shared the recognition that it is important to have a framework in place in order for these regional countries to promote confidence-building, as the relationships among these countries are normalized. Both sides confirmed that, for an overall resolution of the nuclear issues on the Korean Peninsula, they would comply with all related international agreements. Both sides also confirmed the necessity of resolving security problems including nuclear and missile issues by promoting dialogues among countries concerned. The DPRK side expressed its intention that, pursuant to the spirit of this Declaration, it would further maintain the moratorium on missile launching in and after 2003. Both sides decided that they would discuss issues relating to security. Prime Minister of Japan, Junichiro Koizumi & Chairman of the DPRK National Defense Commission, Kim Jong-Il -- September 17, 2002 -- Pyongyang


Notes:

(1) Han Sung Joo, "Current Developments on the Korean Peninsula: Are There Grounds for Hope?," speech UBC October 30, 2002, published by Northeast Asia Peace & Security Network, Special Report, 11/5/02; (2) Alexandre Y. Mansourov, "The Kelly Process, Kim Jong Il's Grand Strategy, and the Dawn of a Post-Agreed Framework Era on the Korean Peninsula," Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network, Special Report, 10/22/02; (3) Choe Kin Su, North Korean Ambassador to PRC, Reuters, 11/01/02

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