Information Update #62 (March 2003)
"War on Terrorism" Dominates ARF
2002 Agenda
TERRORISM:
The 2002 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), held in Brunei at the end of July, was the first ARF to take place since 9/11 and inevitably, the issue of terrorism dominated the proceedings. As a US State Department spokesperson said, "Terrorism...is the centre of our agenda at this meeting.(note 1) The 9th. ARF culminated in the signing of an anti-terrorism pact between the United States and the ASEAN nations. The Joint Declaration for Cooperation to Combat International Terrorism is a political declaration binding the parties to a framework to "prevent, disrupt and combat international terrorism." It calls for improved intelligence sharing and mutual assistance in curtailing the movement of terrorists, closer ties among nations' law enforcement agencies and a requirement that ASEAN states be party to all UN anti-terrorism protocols and conventions. The accord is expected to increase US technical and financial aid to ASEAN countries for counter-terrorism.ASEAN & ARFAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)ARF Participants -- Brunei, 2002 |
Associated Press (8/1/02) claims the accord is "aimed at making the region, which has become the second front in the war against terrorism, more responsive to future threats." Criticism of the declaration has included the fact that there is no protective mechanism to regulate the use and abuse of these measures by state actors.(note:2) Some changes as a result of the so-called war on terrorism, even predating the ARF accord, are already evident in the region ranging from a set-back to democracy and human rights with the enactment and enforcement of national security laws, expanded US military presence in the region, enriched military budgets and even to diminished environmental protection. [Please see: IU#60, "The 'War on Terrorism' in the Asia Pacific," (August 2002).] Some suggest that with the signing of the declaration at the ARF, "The ASEAN Regional Forum may finally be shaking off its 'shop-talk' tag." Singapore's Foreign Affairs Minister S. Jayakumar said, "In my view, at least on non-traditional security concerns, we have moved from confidence-building measures to preventive diplomacy," saying that the post-Sept 11 situation had given special meaning to the ARF.(note:3)The ARF Chairman's Statement stated: "The Ministers underlined the ARF's work in tackling terrorism represented a milestone in the ARF's development of a preventive role." On the sidelines of the ARF, some ASEAN officials worried that Washington's focus on the "war on terrorism" would result in its becoming one-dimensional in its ties to Southeast Asian nations. According to the Straits Times (7/30/02), "They argued that while counter-terrorism was the main issue on the American agenda following the September 11 attacks, it was also necessary to remember that the region was still recovering from an economic crisis. As such, trade and economic issues must continue to be high on the agenda of the multifaceted relationship which Washington has with the region." In his opening address to the ARF, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah noted that terrorism could not be wiped out with military might alone. It was also necessary to remove the frustration and resentment that made people join or associate with groups which promoted terrorism.(note:4) This sentiment was echoed at APEC in October 2002 when Malaysia Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi noted that in a meeting between ASEAN leaders and President Bush, the question of the root cause of terrorism was not discussed; however, Abdullah raised the issue at the APEC leaders' retreat. "I have stated that we must take a stand to understand the root causes of terrorism and why people become terrorists. Once we understand the causes, it will be easier to face the problem."(note:5) On the sidelines at the ARF and subsequently, various bilateral and multilateral counter-terrorism agreements have been undertaken. For example, Australia and Malaysia agreed to military cooperation against terrorism, though most of the day-to-day collaboration will be among police and intelligence agencies. According theAge (8/2/02), Australian Foreign Minister Downer "refused to comment on complaints that Malaysia's police and judicial system had been manipulated to suppress peaceful political dissent as well as alleged terrorists..." By early October, Australia had also signed a similar agreement with Thailand. Also in October, Thailand signed on to an agreement already entered into by Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Cambodia to "jointly combat terrorism and other transnational crimes." Following the ARF on August 2, Colin Powell emerged from a meeting with Indonesia's Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda, saying that he believes a strong Indonesian military is essential to cope with militant Islamic groups with ties to al-Qaida and is eager to patch up military ties with Indonesia which had been sharply curtailed by the US Congress because of Indonesia's human rights abuses. Powell mentioned the Bush Administration's plans to spend $50 million over three years on programs to help Indonesia fight terrorism.(note:6) Recently, on March 26, 2003, Matthew Daley, Asst. Sec of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, testified to the House International Relations Committee that, "Reform in the Indonesian military has not kept pace with Indonesia's broader democratic development. The lack of a track record on accountability for human rights abuses is of particular concern. Nevertheless, it is in the U.S. national interest to engage with the Indonesian armed forces."
| The Pacific Campaign for Disarmament and Security (PCDS) has closely followed the development of the ARF. In July 1994, PCDS and the Thai Peace Seminar Organizing Committee sponsored the Bangkok Peace Seminar to coincide with the inaugural meeting of the ARF. Since that time, PCDS has published an annual report on the ARF along with a letter of recommendations to all ARF foreign ministers and the ASEAN Secretary-General in advance of each ARF meeting. |
In the months following the ARF, there were a number of developments in the "war on terrorism" involving ARF nations. For example, a US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Office was opened at the US Embassy in Beijing to promote, among other things, counter-terrorism efforts. At APEC in October, President Bush announced a US plan to set up a regional training centre for counter- terrorism in Malaysia, a plan proposed earlier by Powell while in Asia for the ARF. At an ARF Inter-Sessional Meeting on counter-terrorism and transnational crime held in March 2003, it was reported that the centre is expected to open in September. Goodwill among some ARF states on counter- terrorism seemed to flag at the time of the bombing in Bali with Australian Prime Minister John Howard's announcement that, "internal law was no longer adequate to confront the threats to national security' and that he would be prepared to launch pre-emptive military strikes overseas to stop a terrorist attack on Australia. The comments were denounced by the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia as a threat to their sovereignty, an unfriendly act and a blow to regional cooperation against terrorism.(note:7) The Philippines considered abandoning plans to sign on to an agreement with Australia similar to those signed by Malaysia and Thailand, and Malaysia threatened to actually review its anti-terrorism pact with Australia. In the wake of the Bali bombing, anti-terrorism measures in some countries intensified. Two emergency decrees were enacted in Indonesia giving authorities sweeping new powers to combat terrorism, leading to "legitimate concerns that a state which has just come out of being controlled through military intelligence may return to the abuses and intimidation tactics of the Suharto era...The pressure for reforming the military has dropped, the military is becoming more aggressive ...Concerns with human rights are taking a backseat, once again, to supposed security concerns. In the end, the war on terrorism may help to undermine Indonesia's fragile democracy ..." (note:8) Though terrorism dominated the ARF meeting, it wasn't the sole issue of attention. Besides 911, other events set the context for the ARF meeting including an inter-Korean naval clash on the West Sea/Yellow Sea, the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir, Myanmar-Thailand border clashes and the release of Daw Ang San Suu Syi from house arrest.
KOREAN PENINSULA:
There were high hopes for progress on stalled DPRK-US relations at the ARF. In an apparently unplanned meeting over coffee on the sidelines of the ARF, DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun and US Secretary of State Colin Powell sat down for a brief 15 minutes. The coffee klatch was the highest level contact between the US and DPRK since Bush took office in 2001 and subsequently inducted the DPRK into the "axis of evil," thereby delivering a blow to the fragile DPRK-US detente of the Clinton years. As a result of the meeting at the ARF, Paek said that it had been agreed that US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly would visit North Korea. Though foreign ministers enthused at the ARF that the US-DPRK relationship looked like it was getting back on track, it would turn out to be that very visit by Kelly in October 2002 that would set off a cascade of events changing the landscape of NE Asia with DPRK's apparent admission of a nuclear weapons program when confronted by Kelly. [Please see: IU#61, "North Korea's Nuclear 'Bombshell' and a Non-Governmental Response," (March 2003).]The 2002 ARF Chairman's Statement again emphasized the importance of the
implementation of the June 15, 2002 North-South Joint Declaration, and full
implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework. In a departure from the previous
year's text, it did mention the United States, saying: "The Ministers hoped that
prospects for dialogue between the DPRK and the United States would improve." At
the ARF, another break- through in relations occurred when Japan and North Korea
agreed to hold their first round of talks on normalizing ties in nearly two
years.
It will be interesting to observe whether the US and DPRK can be brought
together at this year's ARF in Cambodia in June. At a meeting of the
Australia-Indonesia Ministerial Forum, Australia's Foreign Minister Alexander
Downer said that the two countries had agreed to push for a meeting of senior
officials at the ARF in hopes of diffusing the North Korean issue. "Australia
and Indonesia are members of ASEAN Regional Forum and we both agreed...that if
the forum is to demonstrate its real role as a significant regional security
institution, it needs to address the issue of North Korea, not just at its June
ministerial meeting, but as soon as possible."(note:9) Days later, according to Go Asia (3/19/03), "Asia's top security group....the [ASEAN] Regional
Forum hopes to facilitate talks between North Korea and the United States to
prevent another crisis like that over Iraq," and was reported to be "seeking a
mechanism to 'maneuver a dialogue' between both sides." ASEAN foreign ministers
agreed at a retreat in Malaysia to attempt to "soften the position of North
Korea, which has said it will discuss its nuclear ambitions only with the United
States." Cambodia, who heads up the ARF this year, plans to send a senior
official to DPRK. Among options that might be proposed is a meeting on the
sidelines of the ARF which offers a "rare opportunity for officials of the two
foes to meet without losing face." ASEAN Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong has
suggested that DPRK may be ready to consider a face-saving diplomatic option
through ARF, one of the few international organizations of which it is a member.
According to Reuters(3/22/03): "ASEAN is keen for North Korea and the
United States to talk via a group of officials from a small group of chosen
nations known as friends of the chair. Cambodia is the current chair." Ong said
that, "The majority (in ASEAN ) feel the Americans can be persuaded if we can
get North Korea to come around." The 7th. ASEAN- Republic of Korea Dialogue held
on April 8/9 also reiterated ARF's role in the Korea issue saying that ASEAN
members have agreed to help mediate the nuclear situation between the DPRK and
the US at the upcoming ARF.
At the ASEAN Foreign Minister's Informal Meeting Karambunei, Sabah, Malaysia, 19 March 2003 ...The Foreign Ministers expressed their continued concern over the evolving situation in the Korean Peninsula which could lead to a serious threat to peace, security and stability in the whole Asia-Pacific region. The Foreign Ministers - while acknowledging ASEAN as a primary driving force in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) - commended the efforts made in recent months by the ASC/ARF Chairman in facilitating the dialogue with the concerned parties in order to find a lasting and durable solution to the Korean Peninsula. |
On April 9, following a meeting with Brunei's foreign minister, the
Indonesian Foreign Affairs Minister, Hassan Wirayuda, commented that he believes
that the Korean issue is an Asian affair and thus should be settled within the
region at the ARF rather than at the UN. He noted that all the countries
involved with the North Korean issue are member countries of the ARF which was
established to strengthen confidence-building among the members and to conduct
preventive diplomacy. Indonesia's and Brunei's joint statement underlined the
importance of strengthening the ARF as an effective forum for dialogue and
cooperation regarding the evolving security situation in the region.(note:10) By
mid-April in an apparent compromise forged by China, the US who wanted
multilateral talks and the DPRK, who wanted one-on-one talks, agreed to meeting
in Beijing for preliminary talks on April 23-25. Though early reports suggest
the meetings were difficult, the US and DPRK agreed to meet again. Resolution of
the impasse between the United States and the DPRK is expected to be a long and
arduous process and the ARF could play an important role in keeping the parties
talking.
INDIA-PAKISTAN:
As Brendan Pereira reported in the Straits Times (8/1/020), besides its anti-terrorism initiative, "The ARF's resolve to go beyond the safe and tested path was also evident in its joint statement when it urged Pakistan to stop all terrorist activity in a bid to ease tensions with nuclear rival India." The ARF Chairman' Statement reads: "The Ministers exchanged views on the situation in South Asia and recognized the close link between peace, security and stability in the region and in the rest of the world and noted recent efforts in easing tension between India and Pakistan. The Minister further called for an immediate end to all terrorist activities in the region as an essential step to de-escalate the situation. While welcoming its commitment to counter terrorism, Ministers earnestly looked to Pakistan to take urgent further steps to implement it."The Times of India (7/31/02) reported that, "Pakistan suffered another blow when no decision was taken on its application for membership in the ARF with the grouping's chairman Prince Mohamed Bolkiah, Foreign Minister of Brunei, saying there was a moratorium on expansion and that a decision would be taken by the next chairman." According to DAWN (8/1/02), "Some Asean countries have said that they would welcome Pakistan as a member of the forum, but cannot overcome Indian objections."
BURMA:
The 2002 ARF Chairman's Statement said: " The Ministers welcomed the recent developments in Myanmar that signified the important achievements in Myanmar's national reconciliation process, unity and economic progress. The Ministers expressed hoped that the Government of Myanmar would take steps in further consolidating such progress." As of this writing, almost a year since the ruling junta declared the "turning of a new page" for the people of Burma, the ARF's optimism seems misplaced as the junta has not demonstrated any real willingness to begin genuine dialogue with the National League of Democracy and ethnic nationality groups on substantive issues. Altsean-Burma, the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, calls for: 1) Immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners and a halt to all new politically motivated arrests; 2) Constructive and substantive dialogue with the democracy movement led by Daw Ang San Suu Kyi, and ethnic nationality leaders; and 3) Implementation of a nation-wide cease fire based upon dialogue and negotiation within a specific timeframe.Critics suggest that Burma remains the "black sheep" in ASEAN, a "problem child of the Southeast Asian family." Some suggest that Burma takes cover behind ASEAN whenever its junta is criticized by the international community. Supang Chantavanich, director of the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University says, "ASEAN should get worried with Burma's behavior, since it indicates a lack of solidarity in the region. And that can grow."(note:11) While ARF participants talk security, the pace at which they acquire and sell arms to each other and provide military training and assistance seems undiminished. The link between increased arms and security though made in theory, appears not to be made in practice at the ARF.
SAMPLER OF RECENT MILITARY SPENDING
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Notes: 1. Dawn ,7/28/02; 2. ALTSAN Burma, "Smoke Screen" Report Card Burma, 1 July - 30 Sept 2002; 3. Brendan Pereira, "Accord on measures to block terror funds," Straits Times , 8/1/020; 4. Straits Times , 7/30/02; 5. Johan Fernandez, "Malaysia agrees on having anti-terror training centre," The Star , 10/28/02; 6. AP , 8/2/02; 7. Mark Baker, "Asian anger grows at defiant PM," The Age , 12/3/02; 8. Workshop Session: Southeast Asia and the War Against Terrorism, CANCAPS Conference, Dec. 6-8, 2002; 9. Matthew Moore, "Neighbours to move on crisis," Sydney Morning Herald , 3/12/03; 10. Fabiola Desy Unidjaja, "Crisis in North Korea is an Asian affair: Hassan," Jakarta Post , 4/9/03; 11. Marwaan Macan-Markar, "Myanmar: ASEAN's problem child," Asia Times , 6/11/02.