Information Update #64 (May 2005):
ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM (ARF) #11
JAKARTA, INDONESIA -- JULY 2004

Introduction

When Senior Officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in May 2004 to plan the 11th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) for July in Jakarta, the main agenda items were anticipated to be: terrorism, unresolved security issues on the Korean Peninsula, nuclear proliferation, and induction of Pakistan as ARF's newest participant. In fact, these items, plus the perennial problem of Burma, proved to be the very issues that engaged the ARF for its annual meeting.

Korean Peninsula: "words for words" & "action for action"

After the DPRK's foreign minister was a "no show" at the 2003 ARF, Paek Nam-sun accepted an invitation to attend the 2004 ARF and indicated willingness to meet US secretary of state Colin Powell. Indonesia's foreign minister and chair of the 2004 ARF, Hassan Wirayuda, visited North Korea in early May and was hopeful that the ARF could "facilitate" talks among the Six Party nations, all of whose foreign ministers would be attending the ARF. The US and DPRK foreign ministers met for a mere 20 minutes after breakfast on the sidelines of the ARF in what was the highest-level meeting between the two nations in two years. They apparently used the brief time to clarify their positions on proposals advanced the previous month during the third round of the Six Party Talks. Ralph A. Cossa suggested that this meeting at the "region's foremost institutionalized multilateral security dialogue" marked a "high note" in a relationship that then deteriorated into name calling, stalled Six Party Talks and the DPRK's assertion that it does indeed have nuclear weapons.(1) The foreign ministers of both the DPRK and ROK also met at the ARF and issued a joint press statement reaffirming the June 15 Joint Declaration as the fundamental building block upon which to realize inter-Korean recon-ciliation, cooperation and peaceful reunification. They also shared an understanding that a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issues through the Six Party Talks would contribute to the stability of the region and advancement of inter-Korean relations. This exchange between the foreign ministers was the first in four years since the meeting of then South Korean foreign minister Lee Jeong-bin and North Korean foreign minister Paek Nam-sun in 2000.

A month after the ARF, ASEAN's Secretary General Ong Keng Yong reasserted the goal of ASEAN playing the role of "diplomatic deterrent" in the process of resolving the lingering nuclear impasse on the Korean Peninsula. He advanced the idea of "not yet, and maybe not in a substantial way," but that the regional body carries with it a certain "psychological" value. He said, "I think North Korea doesn’t want to be left out, as their participation at the ASEAN Regional Forum clearly indicates."(2)

Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) Founded in 1967 as a multilateral mechanism for promoting peaceful relations, ASEAN includes Burma (Myanmar), Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. ASEAN holds an Annual Ministerial Meeting of ASEAN nation foreign ministers, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and a Post-Ministerial Conference with ASEAN dialogue partners and invited observers. ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) The ARF was established specifically to address regional security issues. Its first annual meeting was held in Thailand in 1994 and the 12th will take place in Vientiane, Laos on July 28, 2005. Considered Asia’s major security forum, the first ARF agreed on “the need to develop a more predictable and constructive pattern of relations in the Asia-Pacific region.” The ARF is characterized by minimal institutionalization, consensus decision-making and the use of "first and second track" diplomacy. The ARF has agreed on a gradual three-stage evolution of confidence building, preventive diplomacy and, in the longer term, conflict resolution. ARF Participants -- Jakarta, Indonesia, 2004 Australia, Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Canada, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North Korea), European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Peoples Republic of China, Philippines, Republic of Korea (South Korea), Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Vietnam, Guest of the Chair: East Timor (Lorosae)

2004 ARF Chairman's Statement: Korean Peninsula "The Ministers exchanged views on recent developments on the Korean Peninsula. The Ministers encouraged the efforts of concerned parties towards the maintenance of peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and the region by achieving a peaceful solution through dialogue to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. The Ministers took note positively that the third round of Six Party Talks was recently held in Beijing on 23-26 June 2004, and the participating states agreed to convene the fourth Six Party Talks in September 2004 in Beijing. The Ministers supported the parties' commitments to the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and underlined the need to take first steps towards the goal as soon as possible. The Ministers emphasized the importance of a step-by-step process of 'words for words' and 'action for action' in search of a peaceful solution to the nuclear issues."

Pakistan: ARF's newest "player"

As the ARF Chairman's Statement (the only official document of the ARF) states: "The Ministers welcomed the admission of Pakistan as the 24th participant of the ARF and took note of its expressed commitment to help achieve the ARF's key goals and abide by and respect fully the decisions and statements already made by the ARF." In May, ARF Senior Officials recommended that Pakistan join the body, thereby ending a moratorium on new participants. Apparently, India (who had been admitted in 1996) finally dropped its objections to Pakistan's participation after Pakistan gave its assurance that it would not raise Kashmir and other India-Pakistan bilateral issues at the ARF. Pakistan's foreign office suggested that ARF participation would "act as a catalyst to promoting peace" in South Asia.(3) Having met on the sidelines, the foreign ministers of both countries emerged from the ARF "optimistic that trust between the two nations was growing and further progress had been made in resolving their long-running Kashmir dispute."(4) According to The Hindu (7July04), "Pakistan, which has now joined India and China by acceding to the ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, may follow India's lead by offering to sign the relevant protocol on the acceptance of South-East Asia as a nuclear weapons-free zone."(5)

In terms of other potential participants, East Timor (Lorosae) remains in the early stages of the process of becoming a member of ASEAN. Currently East Timor attends the ARF as a Guest of the Chair and apparently has the support of the US, Japan, China, Malaysia and Thailand to become a full participant.(6) According to the Jakarta Post (29June04), "The new country is seeking observer status in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian nations Association as well as full membership in the 23-member ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)…"

ASEAN Continues to "Go Soft" on Burma:

In the months leading up to the 2004 ARF, the US extended sanctions for another year on military-ruled Burma on grounds of "large-scale repression of the democratic opposition." [Note: As of May 17, 2005, the US extended the sanctions for an additional year.] As well, the EU had already cancelled two meetings with ASEAN over the issue of Burma's attendance, and a third cancellation for Hanoi in October was looming. These moves came in May as Burma began its National Convention, billed by the junta as a first step to democracy, without first releasing National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Indonesia, chair of ASEAN & the ARF at the time, urged Suu Kyi's release saying, "Indonesia expresses its concern that the National Convention and the existing process of democratization…in Myanmar is falling short of expectations widely shared by the international community." (7) James Kelly, US assistant secretary of state, commented on ASEAN's efforts to influence Burma: "They have been optimistic that they will somehow socialize a kind of changed, enhancement of democracy and openness in Burma and, time after time, have been disappointed." (8)

The ASEAN Ministers Meeting (AMM) that proceeded the ARF issued a watered down "slap on the wrist" kind of statement on Burma, calling for a smooth transition to democracy, but without mentioning Aung San Suu Kyi. Lee Kim Chew, (Straits Times, 30June04) commented that, "…the façade of Asean unity masks the differences within the 10-member grouping. Diplomats said that the Philippines and Indonesia favor a strong statement in the communiqué to prod Myanmar towards change...The other Asean members are tiptoeing gingerly around the Myanmar issue and trying to paper over the cracks, in light of the grouping's non-interference principle in each other's domestic politics." The ARF Chairman's Statement was no stronger:

"The Minister noted the briefing given by Myanmar and discussed the development in Myanmar. The Ministers recalled and emphasized the continued relevance of the 10th ARF Chairman's Statement. In this regard, the Ministers underlined the need for the involvement of all strata of Myanmar society in the on-going National Convention. The Ministers urged Myanmar to take every action that will add substance to the expression of its democratic aspiration. The Ministers also recognized the role of the Special Envoy of the United Nations Secretary-General in assisting Myanmar to achieve this goal."

It is ASEAN practice to have a revolving chair among its 10 member nations with Burma due to take over the chair in mid-2006. This issue has added fuel to the fire of the Burma question and will prove an important issue to watch at this year's ASEAN ministers' meetings in July. PCDS joined other groups in sending a letter to ASEAN foreign ministers at the end of March 2005 asking that ASEAN disqualify Burma from chairing ASEAN in 2006. (See Box)

In Malaysia, a non-binding motion by parliamentarians to press for the ban was debated by the government of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. Minister for parliamentary affairs, Nazri Aziz, said, "Everyone knows there is no democracy there." He suggested that Malaysia must think of its interest and "stop defending' Burma."(9) The motion was ultimately shelved on government orders. According to the International News (1April05), "Zaid Ibrahim, chairman of the cross-party Pro-Democracy Myanmar Caucus, which proposed the motion, said the government apparently did not want to 'offend the Myanmar regime'". ABC Radio News reported on May 16, 2005 that Malaysia's foreign minister, Syed Hamid Albar, said that Burma should be left to make its own decision whether to chair ASEAN in 2006 and that he thought the issue would be cleared up at the July ASEAN meetings. The Philippine Senate unanimously approved a resolution calling for ASEAN to strip Myanmar of the group’s rotating chairmanship unless it frees opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. In Thailand, the chairman of Senate committee on foreign affairs, Kraisak Choonhavan, and 77 other senators, have sponsored an urgent motion in opposition to Burma serving as ASEAN's chair. He said that the Thaksin administration should join the governments of Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in expressing disapproval at Burma being named chair of ASEAN. (10) Jonathan Manthorpe, writing in the Vancouver Sun (12April05) believes that, "What is now spurring a tougher line against the junta is fear that ASEAN as a whole is losing credibility with its international partners, especially the United States and Europe, who have warned they may boycott any meetings of the organization held in Burma." US Secretary of State Condolezza Rice has already said she will not attend the ASEAN meeting if hosted by Burma. Pierre Lizee, of Brock University, suggested that the issue of the chairmanship of ASEAN by Burma in 2006 is a "psychological deadline" for ASEAN to resolve the Burma issue.(11) International News (1April05) reports that, "The issue has exposed divisions among ASEAN members Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Foreign ministers failed to reach a consensus on the issue during a retreat in the central Philippine island of Cebu [in April] and deferred a decision on the chairmanship until July, when they will meet again in Laos." Debbie Stothard of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma (ALTSEAN), a regional human-rights network, views the gathering momentum to criticize Myanmar's domestic political affairs as a "turning point for ASEAN" with the "non-interference principle being chipped away." She says, "The prospect of Burma becoming ASEAN's chairman has become a catalyst for governments and legislators to act and display their pro-democracy credentials."(12)

Terrorism continued to dominate the ARF agenda for the third year with EU security representative Javier Solana describing the ARF as a "powerful motor for action" against terrorism.(13) ARF and its participant states certainly kept the anti-terrorism "motor" running with numerous activities.

Excerpts: NGO Letter to ASEAN on Burma, March 2005 "Deferring Burma’s chairmanship until such a time that the military regime has proven a genuine commitment to fulfill its promises of the political and economic reforms is critical to preserve the credibility and international status of ASEAN. Burma’s military regime, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), has repeatedly manipulated the goodwill of ASEAN and betrayed the trust that ASEAN and individual ASEAN members have invested in the deceitful promises espoused by the regime. In the eight years that Burma has been a member of ASEAN, none of the promised democratic reforms have transpired. On the contrary, abuses have intensified, economic mismanagement worsened and the military has consolidated its power while severely undermining and intimidating the democracy movement and civil society…As ASEAN is maturing, the Burmese military regime is regressing and straining valued relationships with key partners in the international community… …ASEAN’s international standing has suffered enough because of Burma. If ASEAN remains silent on the issue, we fear that it will appear to the international community and the military regime as tacit endorsement of the SPDC’s reign of political, economic and social abuse. If ASEAN awards the chairmanship in Burma at this time, it would lead to the prolongation [of] a misrule that has resulted in widespread human suffering, economic malaise and an expansion of threats to regional stability and security. A democratic Burma is in the best interest of ASEAN and the people of Burma. Only genuine and inclusive reconciliation will ensure a stable, proud and prosperous Burma. For these reasons, we call upon you to officially block Burma from chairing ASEAN in 2006."

2004 ARF Chairman's Statement: Terrorism "The Ministers affirmed that terrorism, irrespective of its origins, motivations or objectives, constitutes a threat to all peoples and countries, and to the common interest in ensuring peace, stability, security and economic prosperity in the region and beyond. The Ministers reiterated their strong condemnation of acts of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The Ministers emphasized the importance of avoiding the identification of terrorism with any particular religion or ethnic group. The Ministers agreed that the campaign against terrorism should be conducted in full conformity with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and in accordance with the principles of international law, in particular humanitarian and human rights law."

ASEAN/ARF Counter-terrorism Activities

March 2004 - ARF Forum Seminar in Singapore on Regional Cooperation on Maritime Security

March 2004 - First meeting of ASEAN air force commanders to discuss, among other topics, anti-terrorism cooperation. Hosted by the Thai airforce, its chief said such a conference was "money well spent." According to the Bangkok Post (20Mar04) he added, "Good military ties could be achieved through golfing and wine drinking."

March - August 2004 -- A series of bilateral exercises -- Cooperation Afloat Readiness & Training (CARAT) which started in Singapore in May 2004 and ended in the Philippines in August focused on enhancing "cooperation and inter-operability in the fight against terrorism."(14) Other nations included: Brunei, Thailand, and Malaysia. [In CARAT 2005, Indonesian and US navies will hold their first joint exercise in four years with Washington having lifted some military restrictions.(15)] In February, the US restored its controversial training programme for the Indonesian military officers (IMET) thirteen years after it was suspended on human rights grounds. The new commander of the US Pacific Command, Admiral William Fallon, on a recent visit to Indonesia, expressed optimism that the United States would soon resume full military cooperation with Indonesia. He said, "I'm very optimistic that we're going to be on a move forward" with full military cooperation resuming "much sooner than later." He said, "I'm determined to do whatever I can to accelerate this process and to put us on a firm footing for the future."(16) In April, Australia and Indonesia signed a "comprehensive partnership" to boost bilateral ties by addressing economic, trade and security issues, including strengthening cooperation on counter-terrorism. In the same month, the Indonesian and Australian air forces launched their first joint military exercise since relations between the two countries dramatically deteriorated over Jakarta-sponsored violence in East Timor six years ago. Australian Defence Minister, Robert Hill said that both sides were looking for ways to deepen their military ties.(17) [Despite US and Australian moves to re-establish military ties with Indonesia, New Zealand's 5-year ban on such ties with Indonesia remains in effect.]

"Arming foreign military allies around the world with weapons and training in U.S. military tactics: If this seems like a good way of multiplying our forces to combat terrorism, consider the cautionary tale of Indonesia."Frida Berrigan, "Balancing Security and Democracy: Lessons from Indonesia," Foreign Policy in Focus, October 26, 2004

June 2004 - Australia hosted the Australian Regional Special Forces and Counter-Terrorism Conference involving special forces officers from the US, Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the US to "coordinate their battle against terrorism."(18)

July 2004 - Indonesia opened the Jakarta Law Enforcement Center, an "anti-terror" school to which Australia contributed US$21.4 million.(19)

July 2004 - US Special Forces began training 240 Filipino soldiers in anti-terror tactics in Mindanao. By the end of 2004, 720 Filipino soldiers were expected to have completed the training. FY2002 to 2004 figures show that the Philippines will have received $284.86 million in military aid in return for the Philippines responding to "the call of the US to cooperate in the war on terrorism" (20) "With the re-election of US President Bush, we can expect a stronger resolve by the US and the Philippines in combating terrorism. This may result to an increased number of exercises in the following years and more solid relations between our two countries," according to Philippines foreign affairs undersecretary Paredes.(21)

August 2004 -- Conference of ASEAN Police Chiefs took place focusing on transnational crimes and terrorism

September 2004 - 5th Annual meeting of Southeast Asian army chiefs to increase intelligence sharing and cooperation among their forces to contain terrorism and other transnational crimes.

November 2004 - Military officials from 24 ARF governments met to "open new channels of dialogue and exchange among defense officials," calling for "closer military cooperation amid concern about terrorism and North Korea's nuclear program."(22)

Dec 2004 -- Australia, urging Asia-Pacific countries to expand their role in the fight against terrorism, hosted its second set of talks relative to the US-backed Proliferation Security Initiative.

March 2005 -- ARF Maritime Security Conference in Singapore co-hosted by the US and Singapore to discuss topics such as terror attacks at sea. According to AFP (2Mar05), "Singapore proposed…that Asia's only security forum move beyond dialogue and hold maritime security exercises to improve its ability to deal with terrorist and other threats. Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean said...that Asian militaries and their counterparts outside the region 'collectively' address security threats in the region's waters. 'It would be useful for the ARF to move beyond dialogue on maritime security and work towards conducting an ARF maritime security exercise in the near future.'"

August 2005 - RF to conduct its first military exercise with China. Cooperation 2005 to be held in China and will include anti-terror exercises.

Although anti-terrorism cooperation has been embraced in the region, it is not without some resistance, even among governments. In the lead-up to the 2004 ASEAN meetings at which the US Regional Maritime Security Initiative was expected to be discussed, Malaysian defense minister Najib Razak said that although his country was open to such cooperation, "what we should avoid is the presence of foreign forces in Southeast Asia, not because we distrust those from outside the region, but because a foreign military presence will set us back in our ideological battle against extremism and militancy…The lessons of Iraq should be clear to us: ill-prepared liberators do makes mistakes and the failure of good intentions can cause great damage to social and political stability."(23)

The Manila Times (28May04), reported that: "Southeast Asia made little progress on the human-rights front in 2003 with many nations using perceived internal and global security threats to curtail freedoms, according to Amnesty International…Along with China and Pakistan elsewhere in Asia, … Thailand and Malaysia were among a group of countries where human rights were 'curtailed under the war on terror', with terrorists suspects falling into legal black holes." Simon Montlake, wrote in the Christian Science Monitor (11May04) that, "An upsurge of violence in disputed corners of Southeast Asia has highlighted the limits to regional antiterror initiatives in the face of unsolved political grievances."

The Pacific Campaign for Disarmament and Security (PCDS) has closely followed the development of the ARF. In July 1994, PCDS and the Thai Peace Seminar Organizing Committee sponsored the Bangkok Peace Seminar to coincide with the inaugural meeting of the ARF. Since that time, PCDS has published an annual report on the ARF along with a letter of recommendations to all ARF foreign ministers and the ASEAN Secretary-General in advance of each ARF meeting.

Nuclear Weapons PCDS has carefully tracked the statements of the ARF and other ASEAN meetings on the subject of nuclear weapons. From the 2004 ARF Chairman's Statement: "The Ministers reiterated the importance of addressing the issue of nonproliferation and disarmament in all its aspects. The Ministers underlined the importance of close collaboration between participants to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. The Ministers also stressed the need to strengthen technical cooperation in order to enhance countries' capabilities and to strengthen national legal measures to address the issue of nonproliferation in all its aspects, in accordance with the international law. The Ministers adopted the ARF Statement on Non-Proliferation…The Ministers of the States parties to NPT agreed to make further efforts for the successful outcome of the 2005 NPT Review Conference. They emphasized the importance of promoting the universalization of non-proliferation and disarmament agreements. The Ministers called for the maintenance of existing moratorium on nuclear testing. The Ministers also reaffirmed their support for the concept of internationally recognized nuclear-weapons-freezones (NWFZs) established on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at among States in the region, and emphasized the contribution of such zones to enhancing global and regional peace and security. They reaffirmed the importance of early accession of Nuclear Weapons States to the Protocol of the SEANWFZ." From ASEAN Regional Forum Statement on Non-Proliferation, Jakarta, 2 July 2004: "…The effort to prevent the proliferation of WMD and their means of delivery requires a comprehensive approach in accordance with international law. Critical to such an approach is to encourage all ARF participants to comply with their respective nonproliferation commitments and disarmament obligations under the international treaties to which they are parties…The ARF has long recognized the threat posed by the proliferation of WMD and their means of delivery to the Asia-Pacific region and the need to uphold, implement and strengthen the multilateral disarmament and nonproliferation treaties and agreements to which ARF participants are states parties…"

Military Buildup

Lofty discussions about peace and security at the ARF seem to have little effect on the continuing arms buildup up in the region. For example,

April 2004 -- Indonesia to buy 8 more Sukhoi jet fighters from Russia. This follows purchase of 2 Su-27 and 2 Su-30 MK jet fighters from Russia in 2003 under a counter-trade arrangement.(24)

August 2004 -- Australia to buy land-attack cruise missiles for the RAAF's F/A-18 fighters and P3 Orion maritime surveillance planes, with a range of 400 km - 4 times the current range of any RAAF missile. Australia will become the first country in the region to be armed with long-range stealth cruse missiles.(25) Moves to increase Australia's strike capacity are not well received by Australia's neighbours. An Indonesian foreign ministry spokesperson, Marty Natalegawa, said that the plans might be seen as aggressive by regional governments. "You cannot arm yourselves to the teeth and expect that will lead, of itself, to a sense of security." He also said, "We are talking here of offensive capability, no longer defensive, capability, and we have to ask ourselves against whom is this long-range cruise missile being directed.".(26)

March 2005 -- PRC to increase military expenditure in 2005 12.6 percent to US$29.5 billion. [Note: By comparison, US defense budget is US$400 billion and Japan's US$47 billion](27)

March 2005 -- India looking to purchase 125 multi-purpose fighters to replace some of its existing 300 Mig 21 and 23 fighters. Major competitors for the contract are expected to be French, US and Russian manufacturers.(28)

March/April 2005 -- US to sell 24 multi-role F-16 jets to Pakistan; at the same time, Lockheed Martin has offered to build ‘exclusive’ F-16 fighters with a complete transfer of technology for the Indian Air Force, much superior to any existing fighters in service the world over. "The deal… projects supply of 18 aircraft in fly away conditions and the remaining 108 to be assembled in India under technology transfer. Analysts said that administration’s announcement yesterday meant that along with the sales of the fighters, Washington may allow the sale of entire array of weapons platforms mounted on it, including beyond visual range air-to-air missiles and 100 km stand-off ground target engaging missiles."(29)

April 2005 -- With US Secretary of State Rice identifying India as a strategic security partner in the region, US and India will increase their military interaction by 2007 to include joint exercises at the brigade level, and increased arms sales to India will increase in sophistication.(30)

April 2005 -- India begins work on a USD$750 million aircraft carrier -- once completed, India joins a handful of other nations capable of domestically producing aircraft carriers.(31) Indian Navy hopes to acquire "blue water capability" in the next 15 years with the addition of two aircraft carriers, more long range spy planes and 25 killer hunter submarines in 30 years.(32)

ARF Structural Changes:

In 2004, the ARF established an "ARF Unit" within the ASEAN Secretariat, which among other roles, will regularly update the ARF Register of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and serve as the repository for ARF documents. Javier Solana, European Union High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, believes the emergence of a permanent secretary for the ARF inspires hope that the ARF could emerge into an effective security body in the Asia-Pacific.(33) Although this minor structural initiative may be positive, some suggest it will not go very far to address a fundamental criticism of the ARF as a "talkshop" which does not have institutional set up and does not produce binding agreements.(34)

Pacific Campaign for Disarmament & Security

©2007 Pacific Peace Working Group